When and Where
Time: 9.00 AM (IST)
Venue: Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
Venue: Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
Not a single win against the Aussies since the beginning of the Australian summer, only 4 wins from 17 matches in Sydney, yet, for some familiar reasons, India start favorites in the 2nd semi-final of the ICC Cricket World Cup 2015 - spin!
India have bowled out the opposition 7-times in a row and it will take some effort to repeat the same against the formidable Australian batting order. Indian middle order has stepped up every time the top 4 fell short, particularly Suresh Raina. The side convincingly defeated Bangladesh in the quarter-final.
Australia's tournament has largely revolved around Mitchell Starc and Glenn Maxwell and it may continue that way. It required some fortune and a gritty knock from Shane Watson to get over the line against Pakistan.
Head to Head
Overall
Played: 117
Australia 67 - 40 India
No Results/Ties - 10
In World Cup
Played: 10
Australia 7 - 3 India
No Results/Ties - 0
Weather report
A sunny day forecasted and the day-night game might have the perfect conditions on offer.
Pitch
Going by the first quarter-final between South Africa and Sri Lanka that was played here, the strip will assist spin. but not by much. Barring Imran Tahir and JP Duminy, all other spinners have struggled at this venue in this competition. Adding to that, the strip has largely been under covers due to rain.
The big number
Team Focus
Australia
The co-hosts do have a point to prove, not to anyone, but to themselves after New Zealand topped South Africa to reach the finals. The team looks better equipped than India, especially with the solidity Michael Clarke and Shane Watson has to offer in the middle.
The two Mitchells - Starc and Johnson along with James Faulkner will be looking forward to offering some chin music to their Asian opponents.
Predicted XI
David Warner, Aaron Finch, Steven Smith, Michael Clarke (c), Shane Watson, Glenn Maxwell, Brad Haddin (wk). James Faulkner, Mitchell Johnson, Mitchell Starc, Xavier Doherty/Josh Hazlewood.
Hazlewood should make the team on merit, plus Doherty has not been at his best. The skipper has other spin options in Smith and himself.
India
As always Australians have done a very good job with the mind games ahead of the big match, but this high-on-confidence Indian side would have had no ears for it. Riding on a 7-match winning streak in this tournament, 11 in Cricket World Cup matches, 16 in ICC tournaments, the team is high on confidence.
But, none of that will do India any help on the field and it all depends on how you perform on the given day. Expect no changes to this balanced squad, sans injuries. How they are going to react to the sledging will be noted.
Predicted XI
Rohit Sharma, Shikhar Dhawan, Virat Kohli, Ajinkya Rahane, Suresh Raina, MS Dhoni, Ravindra Jadeja, Ravichandran Ashwin, Mohit Sharma, Mohammed Shami, Umesh Yadav.
Prediction
If India bat first
A lot will depend on whether Shikhar Dhawan gets set or perishes early. Not the greatest puller and will be targeted by an array of bouncers, not to forget the nagging out-swingers from Mitchell Johnson from around the wicket.
Assuming India are one down by the end of the mandatory powerplay, India will look to take on Glenn Maxwell or Xavier Doherty (if he plays, comes on) and might lose one or two against the run of play. They cannot afford any wickets to spin. Just cannot.
Trust Raina to come out on top of the short ball strategy, India don't have a choice either. Unlike everyone thinks, Ajinkya Rahane holds the key for this encounter, not Kohli. India would love to see Rahane bat up to the end of the batting powerplay, to the least - the primary reason being his ability to hold the innings together. Yes, it could be argued that No.4 is the slot where a batsman should take the attack to the opposition, but this might be the better ploy when it matters the most. Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma might score big or fail big.
If Raina and Dhoni can stay and finish the innings, it should be setting a 310-325 run target. Even if Kohli and Raina fail, there will be at least 275-290 on board, provided the openers stay together till the 15th over or so.
Australians are not as poor against spin as it might appear and MS Dhoni will have a huge void to fill if either one of Ashwin or Jadeja is targeted. Australians will be aware of the same and will go after both of them or at least one.
Is has been days since Dhoni used Ashwin inside the powerplay and it might remain that way. If Mohit Sharma can chip in with wickets in the middle overs, India's game for sure.
If Australia bat first
Umesh Yadav v David Warner should give enough indications of what to expect as the innings progresses. India have a tendency to relax a bit once the powerplay gets completed, almost every team does, and this is where Steven Smith's wicket becomes crucial. Considering the fact, Glenn Maxwell is in his prime, India might push Jadeja to operate much earlier than expected (to guard him).
Only if that happens, Smith can be sent back soon. No great logic in this other than the fact this guy keeps it simple and wicket-to-wicket. Mohit Sharma's medium pace nor Ashwin's turners might not work against Smith, Shami's seam movement might. Chances of a significant contribution from Watson is less. Ashwin has a very good chance of continuing his good run with the ball.
As the game goes on, Maxwell's timing on the ball will decide whether India are chasing a par target or an above par one. Under the lights, Kohli is a more dangerous customer.
Again if the Indian innings progress up to the middle overs by the above-specified way, the innings would revolve around Kohli, not Rahane. Either way, the success of Raina against the lefties of his rivals will be decisive.
Only if that happens, Smith can be sent back soon. No great logic in this other than the fact this guy keeps it simple and wicket-to-wicket. Mohit Sharma's medium pace nor Ashwin's turners might not work against Smith, Shami's seam movement might. Chances of a significant contribution from Watson is less. Ashwin has a very good chance of continuing his good run with the ball.
As the game goes on, Maxwell's timing on the ball will decide whether India are chasing a par target or an above par one. Under the lights, Kohli is a more dangerous customer.
Again if the Indian innings progress up to the middle overs by the above-specified way, the innings would revolve around Kohli, not Rahane. Either way, the success of Raina against the lefties of his rivals will be decisive.
Chances of victory - 70 - 30 in India's favor.
0 comments :
Post a Comment